January 27, 2017
January 24, 2017
The Uranium industry is undergoing a bullish shift in trend characterised by a breakout from multi-year downtrends on a thrust in momentum and volume. Yesterday, the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) had its highest volume day in history, eclipsing even the volume seen on the day of the Fukushima disaster. The high volume selloff in 2011 marked a major negative turning point for the sector and we believe the bullish thrust in momentum represents the same shift in trend to the upside.
Chart 1 – The second week of January saw the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) breakout from a six year downtrend and 1.5 year basing pattern on the highest volume week since the ETF's inception. The resulting pullback occurred on significantly lower volume followed by a reversal higher yesterday on the highest volume day in history. Combined with the momentum thrust to all time highs we view the current breakout as a major shift in trend. As such we recommend accumulating an overweight position in Uranium stocks.
Chart 2 – Cameco Corp. has broken above a major level of resistance along the bottom of the 2011 to 2016 trading range and 2014 downtrend. The breakout occurred on heavy volume and a breakout in RSI and MACD to multi-year highs. We view the current pullback as an opportunity to accumulate a position as we continue to see conservative upside back to $20.00.
Chart 3 – Denison Mines Corp. is breaking out from a three year downtrend and six quarter basing pattern on volume. Price action likely needs to consolidate the breakout in the near-term but we view any pullbacks as an opportunity to accumulate shares in the early stages of a bullish shift in trend.
Chart 4 – The 2016 lows in Fission Uranium were not confirmed by momentum indicators with both RSI and MACD making significantly higher lows. Now price action is breaking above the 2014 downtrend and 1.5 year double bottom on volume and momentum confirming the bullish divergence in momentum. We recommend accumulating any near-term weakness with upside measuring back toward the $1.30 to $1.40 level.
Chart 5 – NexGen Energy remains the leader among the Uranium stocks. After a 2/3rd retracement of the 2016 advance, NXE reversed high from oversold levels and has since broken out to all time highs. While momentum is extended, shares in an uptrend can remain overbought for long periods of time and we continue to recommend letting your winners ride.
Global Uranium ETF: Early Stages of a Major Shift in Trend
Cameco Corp.: Reclaiming Multi-Year Resistance Level on Volume
Denison Mines Corp.: Breakout on Thrust in Volume and Momentum
Fission Uranium Corp.: Breakout Confirms Bullish Divergence
NexGen Energy Ltd.: Breaking Out to All Time Highs
January 18, 2017
January 10, 2017
Attached are ETF gold redemptions since the election in the U.S. Up to January 4, 2017, every single day saw gold redemptions (attachment 1).
Below is the chart as of January 6th, 2017 (last Friday). Finally some buying occured for the first time on January 4, 2017. This was the first buying since November 9, 2016, and the chart is flatten out in gold and silver.
Total Global Gold ETFs were UP 41kozs Friday to 57.015Mozs. …. Global Silver ETFs were UP 116kozs Friday to 652.4Mozs.
January 9, 2017
Large speculators as well as net commercial gold dealers slightly reduced positions. However the open interest starts to increase. (Attachment 1)
The Gold Barometers (Attachment 2) indicate that gold shares (GDM, HUI and XAU) are now in overbought territory. Shares of precious metals companies have vastly outperform last week the physical gold and silver price, which is in a neutral position.
KITCO Gold Survey reveals that Wall Street and Retail investors are in a bullish camp for next week (attachment 3).
The hourly gold chart (attachment 4) shows that gold had a good week closing at US$ 1,172 per ounce at 4 pm New York time last Friday for a weekly gain of US$ 22 per ounce or 1.9%.
As concerns silver large speculators and net commercial dealers slightly increased their positions. These positions are historically very large. The open interest is low (attachment 5).
The hourly silver chart shows the nice rally on January 3rd, once the traders were back. For the rest of the week silver digested that rally (attachment 6).
We added a daily gold chart for the last 2 years to better understand where we stand with the current rally (attachment 7). As can be seen there is strong resistance around US$ 1,220 per ounce. The 300-day moving average is currently also at that level. The Point&Figure chart also indicates the resistance at US$ 1,210 per ounce (attachment 8).